SaaSpocalypse Recovery: Winners and Losers Revealed

The Gist

• B2B software market recovers with $2 trillion swing
• CrowdStrike up 83%, monday.com down 36% YTD
• AI workloads and multiples drive divergence
• Consumption and security sectors lead with 54-83% gains

• The recovery of the SaaS market is nearly complete, with AI displacement fears being overblown.
• Security companies like CrowdStrike benefit from AI adoption as it expands the attack surface.
• Consumption-based pricing models are more resilient in the AI-driven market compared to seat-based pricing.
• HubSpot's decline is attributed to larger buying committees, longer sales cycles, and increased budget scrutiny.
• Companies with consumption-based pricing models are better positioned to capitalize on AI-driven workloads.
• The market is re-rating companies based on their ability to add AI-driven revenue lines.

• Shift to consumption-based pricing models to better align with AI-driven market demands.
• Monitor customer concentration risk, especially with consumption-based pricing models.
• Focus on AI-driven revenue lines to improve market re-rating and investor confidence.
• Prepare for longer sales cycles and increased budget scrutiny by streamlining approval processes.

• 40% (Increase in the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) from its April low to September 3.)
• 83% (Year-to-date increase in CrowdStrike's stock price.)
• 36% (Year-to-date decline in monday.com's stock price.)
• 19% (Drop in Datadog's stock price on August 6, its steepest since its 2019 IPO.)
• 14% (Growth in Salesforce's cRPO in constant currency.)
• 44% (Growth in Atlassian's RPO in Q4 FY26.)
• 117 points (Spread between the best and worst performers in the SaaS market recovery.)